Crikey – another huge gap on Sunday evening which took me out of trading this morning. Instead I observed the continuation of the trend down on GBPUSD. I could have got back into the trend 1 or 2 times in the morning, but not comfortable to do so what with the daily ranges virtually being met if we were to include the price action on Sunday.
I spent the time this morning back analysing one of my strategies and working out over the last 2 months the frequency of setups and when they occurred. I was surprised to find that in Jan and Feb there were 44 setups between the hours of 0600 – > midday UK Time on GBPUSD. Over 40 trading days of which 6 of those I would have considered non-trade days.
17 x 1% Losses – Trades that would have stopped out without getting to 1%
16 x 1% Gains which I would assume would have ended up Break even as I would have let run and then been stopped out at Breakeven.
11 x >1% Winners which would have been a total 35% (average of 3% each).
Interesting stats……only 25% in profit trades but with a Net position of +18%.
All well and good doing this shoulda woulda coulda backtest, but gives me confidence to see trades thru to the end and not to cut short. If I would have cut all trades at 1% I would have ended with a Net profit of just 10% !!!
Another interesting fact is that if I had not traded on close to GBP news announcements, where there tends to be the biggest moves I would have had a much reduced profit by several %.
Lets hope for good market conditions tomorrow and a quiet Asia session please.