Apr 30

Erratic performance – but head above water!

I’ve had a good couple of trades over the past 2 weeks and a couple of rather impetuous trades that you think are out of your system until they happen!

After not finding a low risk entry short on AUDUSD last week it was frustrating to then see the pair crumble the way it did exactly as I predicted. After that drop and the encouraging GDP figures out of the UK and Cable take off there has been a lot of sideways movement in the market – until today.

EURUSD has possibly broken out of its box today and we could see moves above 1.32000 in the not too distant future…..all eyes on Friday at 13:30. If payrolls are worse than 150k then we can expect to see the Euro gain in strength – well until the next country in Euroland that manages to scupper its recovery!

Out of the Box!

Out of the Box!

 

GBPUSD is at an interesting place right now though……check out the pair and keep an eye on it this week. We could see a break out of channel or a bounce back in. A classic case of wait and see before jumping in!

Wait here.......for direction!

Wait here…….for direction!

Good trading all!

Jim

Permanent link to this article: http://intradayforextrading.co.uk/2013/04/30/erratic-performance-but-head-above-water/

Apr 14

+70pips & Watch out for short on AUDUSD next week

Good trading week last week, albeit with a lot of seesaw action “reading between the lines” was oh so important in order to bank profits. Economic news releases at present are proving to be rather contradictory. The US posts bad employment figures, yet the Dow continues to soar to record highs as to property values in the US are also on the up, some 20% in just the past 6 months. Huge divergence on equity market values across the globe – is the US over valued, Europe Undervalued or a bit of both ?

I attended a FX seminar in London on the 6th April at the British Library. Good fun catching up with other traders and talking FX for a whole day, very enjoyable and with a good mix of speakers. The event was arranged by the London Traders Network – their next event will be on 6th July 2013. Keep tabs on the details by following this meetup group : http://www.meetup.com/TheLondonTradersNetwork/  Few better ways for a trader to spend a day !

My two trades of the week.

1) +50 pips Long on GBPUSD 4H Chart Thursday 11th April

You can see the setup on the attached picture. Cable trading within the uptrend range but had clearly stalled at a resistance of 1.5345 and tested in 3x. I took a long order above this resistance expecting a momentum move to the upper trend area. This was the second phase momentum move as can be seen on the MACD so I wasn’t expecting it to be the strongest and only held the position for a day and bagged 50pips by 16:00 and managed to close out before the pair fell away the next day.

+50pips GBPUSD

 

2) +20pips Long EURUSD 30m Chart Thursday 11th April

 

Not the type of trade I am looking for these days, as I am focussing more on start and end of day trades, but this one popped up after a referral and I took a look. It met my conditions after tweaking the entry an exit criteria. This trade had a convergence bounce of both the daily pivot and rising trend line, proved to be enough momentum to take the price thru my target in just 10 mins and then I was out and counting pips!

Quick +20pips on EURUSD

 

Short Opportunity on AUDUSD Next Week 4H Chart

I will be looking for a short setup on AUDUSD next week as a reversal week is looking a high probability and AUDUSD has just hit the limits on its Range Bound area. Take a look at the 4H chart below and you can see a good 75-100pip potential off a typical ABC Bounce from a recently broken support at 1.0500 back down to an established S/R at 1.0400. Maybe the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes in AUD on Tuesday will give the boost to this trade opp.

AUDUSD Short Opp

 

Lots of trading news this week to create some Market maker positioning which will provide us small traders with some great opportunities, so good luck out there and stay in touch.

Jimmy

 

Permanent link to this article: http://intradayforextrading.co.uk/2013/04/14/70pips-watch-out-for-short-on-audusd-next-week/

Mar 31

20 days and +200pips on GBPJPY

There has been a lot of noise about shorting the JPY crosses these last few weeks. For sure after quite incredible  JPY weakness on the back of a return to some “risk appetite” (god I hate that phrase) to other majors during the past 12 months and there needed to be some correction.

Finding an entry into the JPY corrections though has been very difficult as both the GBPJPY and EURJPY have been bouncing around rather rangebound since the turn of the year. The reason for this is that the fundamentals for being long on GBP/EUR/USD vs JPY are immense and outweigh the shot term trade opportunities, and dangerous.

Japan absolutely needs to weaken its currency in order to start exporting again and additionally Japanese co.s abroad have had their returning foreign currency delivering less growth to the JPY denominated accounts for the past few years. Japan will start its QE soon, and then we will see the next stage of JPY weakness.

Anyway, I do enjoy the 30min trade patterns more than 4H or Dailies, but as I have other commitments sometimes the 4H signals are the ones that I can actually enter these days. This trade of GBPJPY I found on the weekend of 2nd and 3rd March. Nothing like price hesitation over more than a few bars on the 4H charts to get my interest. Took the break of 141 with a deep SL at 200pips below at 139 but comfortable support. Price moved very well for 10 days then Cyprus hit and back to the JPY went some flows…..bugger. You can see that the price then started to move underneath the new trend line rather than above it. At this point I got more aggressive with my stop loss and at the next pitch to 145 I moved to my SL to 143 and a few days later this was triggered. But a very nice trade thank you and will be looking for more long entries on this pair for the next year or so, will be a nice ride up to 160.

GBPJPY 200pips

 

Happy and Relaxed Trading People

Intraday FX Trader

Permanent link to this article: http://intradayforextrading.co.uk/2013/03/31/20-days-and-200pips-on-gbpjpy/

Jan 26

The New Turtles – Trading Traders

One course I sure as hell won’t be attending (although I will admit I did apply at the start) is Mike Baghdady’s Turtle program. In my opinion I’ve realised that this is no more than a publicity stunt in order to entice more people onto his “Paid For” course. He has had more than 8,000 applicants and will select 10 people to be part of his trading program. Work out the probabilites and motivations yourself ….

If someone came to me with odds of 800:1 in order to be mentored by an ex- New York city trader, I know what my answer would be.

(original post has been edited after threat of legal action)

Permanent link to this article: http://intradayforextrading.co.uk/2011/01/26/the-new-turtles-trading-traders-scam-mike-baghdady-is-a-bankrupt/

Jan 25

Now what for the Eton Duo and The King ?

No great technicals to trade this morning. Some great pure gambles and trading on tips if you like that sort of thing.

After the UK GDP data crashed the forex market at 09:30, any meaningful trade ideas have been dashed for the day. When someone does a Bomb in the swimming pool it takes a while for the ripples to dissipate, while the aftershocks / aftersharks are having fun. I’d be surprised if there are any trades that meet my profile today.

The big question is what will Osbourne and Cameron do now ? A slowing economy and Inflation on the rise, something only like a basketcase nation like Argentina (I have lived there, it is a basketcase, nice meat but a basketcase nonetheless) has had to face or the bad decades in the UK of the 30’s and 70’s.  The troubling dichotomy that the UK Govt has is that this time around inflation is being stoked by externally, global forces, mainly by commodities and not by a domestic spending bubble. Any UK government wants to see a thriving economy in order to retain power, that’s the only game-plan of any honest politician (the power not the economy by the way), but since 1997 the UK Govt abdicated interest rate decisions to the BOE, which leaves the key to the success of this coalition not at 10 Downing St but at Threadneedle St.

Which leaves the BOE between a rock and a hard place.Raise interest in the next QTR will now look foolhardy given the latest GDP data, but the UK needs a much stronger currency in order to mitigate the inflationary pressures of USD priced commodities. My view is that UK rates could easily go to 2-2.5% without hurting the economy, they will still be well below average and if they raise rates now in-front of the fed Sterling gets a much on the USD and helps to bring our commodity prices down. The long term plan is to have our rates at a premium to The Fed, now that is a sobering thought !

Either way The Lady of The City has the last laugh.

Jimmy

Permanent link to this article: http://intradayforextrading.co.uk/2011/01/25/now-what-for-the-eton-duo-and-the-king/

Jan 24

+50 pips The Start of the End for Intraday Trading

Great start to the week. Managed to keep my finger off the trigger to the exact right moment and it paid off handsomely. Went long on EURUSD at 14:40 with a price of 1.3609 at the break of the retracement candle and took it up to 1.3665. Very fast move which made it simple to manage ! So 4% up for the month this far and still the rest of the “lucrative” week left.

The good news is that I have been offered an amazing full-time job elsewhere in the UK, the bad news is it means I will leave my intraday trading behind me for now and concentrate on my strategy but on End of Day Candles.  But why work when you can trade ??

The fact is simple guys and girls : no matter what anyone tells you, making your sole living from trading your own money isn’t easy and will take you some time. Even though I could trade with my savings of £100k I’d be a fool to do that until I’ve got many more profitable months under my belt and not when I have kids and family to support.

So I’ll go back on the employee bandwagon, get regular dosh coming in that will allow me to relax with longer timeframes. For the next 2 weeks though I’m still on Intraday and will try and press home the advantage of last few days I have left :-)

Heading into 5 consecutive months of profits !!!

Jimmy

Permanent link to this article: http://intradayforextrading.co.uk/2011/01/24/50-pips-the-start-of-the-end-for-intraday-trading/

Jan 17

Quick 30pips Short on EURUSD before Indianapolis and Montreal

I didn’t think I would have an opportunity to trade this morning – it’s Monday and US Public Holiday could mean slow and choppy. What I saw though on EURUSD was the exact setup I saw on AUDUSD on Friday – I couldn’t resist sizing it up and trading it short and against the trend.  Play it tight though, it was right on 08:00 GMT and Cable and Aussie looked stable enough. The EURJPY was also looking unhappy so used this pair as my confirmation of EUR weakness.

In at 07:55 and out totally at 10:30 for 1.5%.  T1 hit with some resistance and I really didn’t see the momentum for price to get down to T2 especially when the Cable and Aussie started to fly a little. I took the remainder off the table a little more than T1.

Again, just 1 trade is enough. Looking at my trading journal, I’ve gone from 20-25 trades per week (Jan 2010) to an average over the last 3 months to just 5 per week – 1 a day. And in that 3 months I’ve grown my account by 10%, versus the hedonistic trading style early last year where I was leeching capital by trading just too many times and on everything that moved.

Now off to the airport with a thermal vest;  apparently it’s going to get down to -15 deg C there this week – holy crap :-(

Same as Friday

see you Friday

Jimmy

Permanent link to this article: http://intradayforextrading.co.uk/2011/01/17/quick-30pips-short-on-eurusd-before-indianapolis-and-montreal/

Jan 14

+87pips Short on AUDUSD – did you spot the sickly child ?

I am patting myself on the back as I write this…….one minute I want to pat some more. 😀

After 3 days of no trading; 2 days out of office and 1 day (yesterday) packed full of news that I wanted to stay clear of (read slippage post of last week to see why) I approached the market today a little rusty for intraday trading. Still what did I see first thing ? Wow hasn’t the USD weakened vs the EUR, GBP and AUD. The EUR and GBP positively gazelle like in their march up the Pip Charts. Like a swift shot of your favourite malt or bourbon- it didn’t touch the sides. But the AUDUSD march was less majestic; take a look at your own charts for this pair. The move was like dragging a screaming child thru the supermarket at the weekend. It went but with protest. This morning the pair had had enough and it was time to go home; it was time to think about shorting again. The unwillingness for price to stay above parity once again and the bounce of the Daily Pivot line gave me all the encouragement I needed to take it short.

The rest as they say is history, take a look below at my entry and target levels to ammass my 3% for the trade and back up for the month before we even get into the lucrative sessions in the next 2 weeks.

The Sickly Child

Have a good weekend. I am not trading next week as I am off to Indianapolis and Montreal – visit notes on my return.

Jimmy

Permanent link to this article: http://intradayforextrading.co.uk/2011/01/14/87pips-short-on-audusd-did-you-spot-the-sickly-child/

Jan 12

It’s official : Trading tomorrow Rated 18

Not trading this week as I’ve had a lot of non-trading activities going on, unfortunately not golf related 😉

Didn’t miss much Monday and Tuesday as it turns out during my trading window, the US session has had much of the action today included. Was due to start trading tomorrow but judging by the news expected on Thursday it’s not looking like a sensible day to trade for us minnows – on days like tomorrow the big boys will be moving the markets to get into position to speculate on the news.Then take our little cluster of stops out for fun. Then after that big mouth Bernake is due to speak in the evening.

Remember – the price makes the news NOT the news makes the price !!

Just look at the sea of red tomorrow…….stay in bed, go to the gym, driving range…..but don’t trade. As usual the easiest money is made in the back 2 weeks of the month.

Crazy News day

Jimmy

Permanent link to this article: http://intradayforextrading.co.uk/2011/01/12/its-official-trading-tomorrow-rated-18/

Jan 10

Forex News Noise and the Promotional Community

I am sitting here listening to a bit of BBC Radio whilst looking at my charts every now and again, it’s a quiet morning on the Forex Markets front. No high probability trading opportunities for me; yet. Short EURJPY and maybe Cable sometime today could be possible – we’ll see. Calm ship on calm water, I can make sound navigation decisions – after all it’s my boat I’m floating here.

However, I know just by taking a look at Internet sites such as twitter, FX Street, Bloomberg that there are all manner of people that want to tell you what they think will happen, some even tell you when they are going into trades. There’s this rumour, that gossip, this opinion, that report. The noise the noise the noise…..Is it at all helpful to me making a successful trade or a successful trading career – never ! And I’ll tell you why.

1st : Trading is Simple but Not Easy

You need concentration and focus in this game. Unless you are some genius that can listen to Bloomberg, read your dozen or so twitter feeds, keep up to date with the news, read report after report, watch trading video after trading video and then after all that know definitely, without fear, hesitation what you are going to do today and manage that trade, size it and be in time for it – you will fail. Save your learning to the weekends or time you are not trading. When you are trading you are fishing; when the bite happens you need to be ready to strike.

2nd : What’s in it for them ?

We have all been offered tips before in all walks of life. “Don’t trust that guy”, or “buy that stock” or “follow my trades” or “Don’t buy the Jeep auto it stinks” etc etc. Why do people offer advice ? Usually for three reasons – Monetary gain, Ego, Care. Well apart from a few trader folk who I have known for a little while and shared a beer with and I honestly feel that if I asked them an opinion they’d tell me straight as I know they have my interests at heart and nothing else to gain. Everyone else out there falls into the Financial gain or Ego camp. I come back to my point about being “my ship”. My trading account is my responsibility and no-one elses. Unless it is me making the analysis, making the call and pulling the trigger it is not my trade. When it goes wrong; who’s fault is it ? Mine. If I follow tips who’s fault is it – theirs. I repeat – who’s account is it ? Not Long after your account is dust, someone else will be joining the fray and paying for the tips, services or just sucking up to the noise like a comfort blanket.

The worst proponent of the noise culture I have come across is Boris Schlossberg; yak yak yak yak but say something will ya !! In the partnership between him and Kathy Lien it doesn’t take long to work out the brains in the partnership. The reason he’s on the road so much I I imagine it drives Kathy nuts having him in the BKForex Office. A close 2nd would be Todd Gordon, never come across someone that epitomises the fast talking guy from Wall St stereotype as much as Todd. What an ego !

We’ve all been told to choose you friends carefully. In Forex Trading the only friend you have is your capital; listen to this and nothing else. Count anything else as a distraction to your game plan.

So what’s in it for me writing this ? Well to most people reading this I have not shared  a beer, so you cannot say I care. This blog is free, so not financial. It’s ego I guess. Sorry 😉

Anyway, in the 30mins it has taken to write this, still nothing really happening and I need  a cuppa !

Jimmy

Permanent link to this article: http://intradayforextrading.co.uk/2011/01/10/forex-news-noise-and-the-promotional-community/

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