Jan
26

Final Post after 365 days of full-time Day Trading

Loads to do before I start my new job so I made today my last day of trading and thought I’d blog the last missive for what will be a little while. Looking at my trading journal I placed my first trade in the FX market 25th Jan 2010, almost exactly a year ago. Flicking through my screen shots of these last 365 days I can see how I have developed as a trader and in some cases not ! But by and large I have learnt so much this past 12 months to an extent that I am confident of being profitable at the end of each month – now that is some achievement folks ! And if I was to be brutally honest, the biggest skills I have found and honed myself, sure courses and discussions with other traders has helped to some degree but in the main these just lead to distraction. Everyone has to find their own trading strategy and style – it is 100% true what you have read about this. Its not what most new traders want to hear, but is about the biggest truth out there. If you copy someones trade ideas I can guarantee you fill fail eventually my friend.

So what were my stats ?

Total Live Trades : 457       Average Trades per Day : 2.3     (when profitable during last 5 months this was averaged at 1 trade per day)

Total Win – 41%      Total Loss – 48%     BreakEven – 11%    (when profitable Win 31%,   Loss  29%,  Breakeven   40%)

Total Equity Growth for 12months tradiing Full-Time :  -15%

Total Equity Growth for period when started to make money consistently (Sep 2010 -> Jan 2011) : +10%

I lost money overall as you can see, but hand on heart know if I traded another 12 months this would not be the case however with your own money the cash income depends on the size of your trades and the size of your trades depends on your size of equity. I don’t think that performance is shabby trading a £20,000 account in my first year of trading. What I didn’t do was lose it during all that time !!

My tips to any newbie reading this :

1) If you have less than £50,000 to trade with in an account – don’t bother.   If you can manage 5% per month this will give you £2,500 income. More if risk more of course.

2) Anyone telling you they can get you more than 10% per month (every month every year) is complete BS.

3)As Jesse Livermore did and Dr Mike Burry of recent The Big Short fame did – don’t crowd yourself with market tips, and unecssary noise around your trading job. Focus on the job in hand and execute perfectly.

4)Don’t pay for data feeds

5)Don’t pay more than a few hundred £/$ for a course, online or whatever to get started.

6)Don’t trade real money until you know what you are doing and can make money on demo. You will lose as soon as you go LIve, but you will start to gain in confidence as long as you keep focused on doing the right things.

……yada yada yada…I could go on forever.

Well to those of you I have met on this journey its been great getting to know you and some of you luckily in person; you know who you are.  I really am going to feel lost not getting up and wondering what happened in Asia overnight and having anticipation looking at those charts first thing in the morning and seeing the candles set my imagination alight. Creating my plan for the trading day and the warm feeling of satisfaction when it all went to plan. It has been an amazing time of my life and have learnt a skill I will certainly come back to sooner rather than later, but on daily charts like I said. Sometimes you just have to do what you gotta do but don’t be like the rest :

My Best Larson Cartoon

Until then bye bye NFP, slippage, My Blog, whipsaws, Pivots, Trend Lines, Price Action, Profits, Losses, higher hi’s, lower lo’s, lower hi’s and higher lo’s, London open, Nylon, Cable, Aussie, Loonie, Spreads, daily Ranges, MACD and finally whether to BUY or SELL.   LOVE IT

Best wishes and good luck with your trading.

Jimmy :-)

Jan
26

The New Turtles – Trading Traders

One course I sure as hell won’t be attending (although I will admit I did apply at the start) is Mike Baghdady’s Turtle program. In my opinion I’ve realised that this is no more than a publicity stunt in order to entice more people onto his “Paid For” course. He has had more than 8,000 applicants and will select 10 people to be part of his trading program. Work out the probabilites and motivations yourself ….

If someone came to me with odds of 800:1 in order to be mentored by an ex- New York city trader, I know what my answer would be.

(original post has been edited after threat of legal action)

Jan
25

Now what for the Eton Duo and The King ?

No great technicals to trade this morning. Some great pure gambles and trading on tips if you like that sort of thing.

After the UK GDP data crashed the forex market at 09:30, any meaningful trade ideas have been dashed for the day. When someone does a Bomb in the swimming pool it takes a while for the ripples to dissipate, while the aftershocks / aftersharks are having fun. I’d be surprised if there are any trades that meet my profile today.

The big question is what will Osbourne and Cameron do now ? A slowing economy and Inflation on the rise, something only like a basketcase nation like Argentina (I have lived there, it is a basketcase, nice meat but a basketcase nonetheless) has had to face or the bad decades in the UK of the 30′s and 70′s.  The troubling dichotomy that the UK Govt has is that this time around inflation is being stoked by externally, global forces, mainly by commodities and not by a domestic spending bubble. Any UK government wants to see a thriving economy in order to retain power, that’s the only game-plan of any honest politician (the power not the economy by the way), but since 1997 the UK Govt abdicated interest rate decisions to the BOE, which leaves the key to the success of this coalition not at 10 Downing St but at Threadneedle St.

Which leaves the BOE between a rock and a hard place.Raise interest in the next QTR will now look foolhardy given the latest GDP data, but the UK needs a much stronger currency in order to mitigate the inflationary pressures of USD priced commodities. My view is that UK rates could easily go to 2-2.5% without hurting the economy, they will still be well below average and if they raise rates now in-front of the fed Sterling gets a much on the USD and helps to bring our commodity prices down. The long term plan is to have our rates at a premium to The Fed, now that is a sobering thought !

Either way The Lady of The City has the last laugh.

Jimmy

Jan
24

+50 pips The Start of the End for Intraday Trading

Great start to the week. Managed to keep my finger off the trigger to the exact right moment and it paid off handsomely. Went long on EURUSD at 14:40 with a price of 1.3609 at the break of the retracement candle and took it up to 1.3665. Very fast move which made it simple to manage ! So 4% up for the month this far and still the rest of the “lucrative” week left.

The good news is that I have been offered an amazing full-time job elsewhere in the UK, the bad news is it means I will leave my intraday trading behind me for now and concentrate on my strategy but on End of Day Candles.  But why work when you can trade ??

The fact is simple guys and girls : no matter what anyone tells you, making your sole living from trading your own money isn’t easy and will take you some time. Even though I could trade with my savings of £100k I’d be a fool to do that until I’ve got many more profitable months under my belt and not when I have kids and family to support.

So I’ll go back on the employee bandwagon, get regular dosh coming in that will allow me to relax with longer timeframes. For the next 2 weeks though I’m still on Intraday and will try and press home the advantage of last few days I have left :-)

Heading into 5 consecutive months of profits !!!

Jimmy

Jan
17

Quick 30pips Short on EURUSD before Indianapolis and Montreal

I didn’t think I would have an opportunity to trade this morning – it’s Monday and US Public Holiday could mean slow and choppy. What I saw though on EURUSD was the exact setup I saw on AUDUSD on Friday – I couldn’t resist sizing it up and trading it short and against the trend.  Play it tight though, it was right on 08:00 GMT and Cable and Aussie looked stable enough. The EURJPY was also looking unhappy so used this pair as my confirmation of EUR weakness.

In at 07:55 and out totally at 10:30 for 1.5%.  T1 hit with some resistance and I really didn’t see the momentum for price to get down to T2 especially when the Cable and Aussie started to fly a little. I took the remainder off the table a little more than T1.

Again, just 1 trade is enough. Looking at my trading journal, I’ve gone from 20-25 trades per week (Jan 2010) to an average over the last 3 months to just 5 per week – 1 a day. And in that 3 months I’ve grown my account by 10%, versus the hedonistic trading style early last year where I was leeching capital by trading just too many times and on everything that moved.

Now off to the airport with a thermal vest;  apparently it’s going to get down to -15 deg C there this week – holy crap :-(

Same as Friday

see you Friday

Jimmy

Jan
14

+87pips Short on AUDUSD – did you spot the sickly child ?

I am patting myself on the back as I write this…….one minute I want to pat some more. :-D

After 3 days of no trading; 2 days out of office and 1 day (yesterday) packed full of news that I wanted to stay clear of (read slippage post of last week to see why) I approached the market today a little rusty for intraday trading. Still what did I see first thing ? Wow hasn’t the USD weakened vs the EUR, GBP and AUD. The EUR and GBP positively gazelle like in their march up the Pip Charts. Like a swift shot of your favourite malt or bourbon- it didn’t touch the sides. But the AUDUSD march was less majestic; take a look at your own charts for this pair. The move was like dragging a screaming child thru the supermarket at the weekend. It went but with protest. This morning the pair had had enough and it was time to go home; it was time to think about shorting again. The unwillingness for price to stay above parity once again and the bounce of the Daily Pivot line gave me all the encouragement I needed to take it short.

The rest as they say is history, take a look below at my entry and target levels to ammass my 3% for the trade and back up for the month before we even get into the lucrative sessions in the next 2 weeks.

The Sickly Child

Have a good weekend. I am not trading next week as I am off to Indianapolis and Montreal – visit notes on my return.

Jimmy

Jan
12

It’s official : Trading tomorrow Rated 18

Not trading this week as I’ve had a lot of non-trading activities going on, unfortunately not golf related ;-)

Didn’t miss much Monday and Tuesday as it turns out during my trading window, the US session has had much of the action today included. Was due to start trading tomorrow but judging by the news expected on Thursday it’s not looking like a sensible day to trade for us minnows – on days like tomorrow the big boys will be moving the markets to get into position to speculate on the news.Then take our little cluster of stops out for fun. Then after that big mouth Bernake is due to speak in the evening.

Remember – the price makes the news NOT the news makes the price !!

Just look at the sea of red tomorrow…….stay in bed, go to the gym, driving range…..but don’t trade. As usual the easiest money is made in the back 2 weeks of the month.

Crazy News day

Jimmy

Jan
10

Forex News Noise and the Promotional Community

I am sitting here listening to a bit of BBC Radio whilst looking at my charts every now and again, it’s a quiet morning on the Forex Markets front. No high probability trading opportunities for me; yet. Short EURJPY and maybe Cable sometime today could be possible – we’ll see. Calm ship on calm water, I can make sound navigation decisions – after all it’s my boat I’m floating here.

However, I know just by taking a look at Internet sites such as twitter, FX Street, Bloomberg that there are all manner of people that want to tell you what they think will happen, some even tell you when they are going into trades. There’s this rumour, that gossip, this opinion, that report. The noise the noise the noise…..Is it at all helpful to me making a successful trade or a successful trading career – never ! And I’ll tell you why.

1st : Trading is Simple but Not Easy

You need concentration and focus in this game. Unless you are some genius that can listen to Bloomberg, read your dozen or so twitter feeds, keep up to date with the news, read report after report, watch trading video after trading video and then after all that know definitely, without fear, hesitation what you are going to do today and manage that trade, size it and be in time for it – you will fail. Save your learning to the weekends or time you are not trading. When you are trading you are fishing; when the bite happens you need to be ready to strike.

2nd : What’s in it for them ?

We have all been offered tips before in all walks of life. “Don’t trust that guy”, or “buy that stock” or “follow my trades” or “Don’t buy the Jeep auto it stinks” etc etc. Why do people offer advice ? Usually for three reasons – Monetary gain, Ego, Care. Well apart from a few trader folk who I have known for a little while and shared a beer with and I honestly feel that if I asked them an opinion they’d tell me straight as I know they have my interests at heart and nothing else to gain. Everyone else out there falls into the Financial gain or Ego camp. I come back to my point about being “my ship”. My trading account is my responsibility and no-one elses. Unless it is me making the analysis, making the call and pulling the trigger it is not my trade. When it goes wrong; who’s fault is it ? Mine. If I follow tips who’s fault is it – theirs. I repeat – who’s account is it ? Not Long after your account is dust, someone else will be joining the fray and paying for the tips, services or just sucking up to the noise like a comfort blanket.

The worst proponent of the noise culture I have come across is Boris Schlossberg; yak yak yak yak but say something will ya !! In the partnership between him and Kathy Lien it doesn’t take long to work out the brains in the partnership. The reason he’s on the road so much I I imagine it drives Kathy nuts having him in the BKForex Office. A close 2nd would be Todd Gordon, never come across someone that epitomises the fast talking guy from Wall St stereotype as much as Todd. What an ego !

We’ve all been told to choose you friends carefully. In Forex Trading the only friend you have is your capital; listen to this and nothing else. Count anything else as a distraction to your game plan.

So what’s in it for me writing this ? Well to most people reading this I have not shared  a beer, so you cannot say I care. This blog is free, so not financial. It’s ego I guess. Sorry ;-)

Anyway, in the 30mins it has taken to write this, still nothing really happening and I need  a cuppa !

Jimmy

Jan
06

Slippage : and how it can hurt your Forex Trading account big time

I have never bothered about slippage in Forex. I have always got filled at the price I wanted when I wanted it, no problem. Until today that is.

At 09:28 and 1 sec GMT Cable dropped 50 pips. Straight thru my stop loss……..So my stop loss was not triggered and my broker closed my order at the next quote it got.  That cost me 2% on top of the 0.5% loss of my stop order. Painful or what !

You can take out insurance to cover you against slippage, but what’s the point. Just don’t smoke in bed in the first place. Very unusual for Cable to have a reaction to a news item which wasn’t expected to be so significant.

Not really a lesson as such, as yesterday I stayed in a trade whilst the news broke and it went for me, today it didn’t. One of those risks we take as traders – I’m sure I wasn’t the only one long this morning on cable. So not taking it personally of course, just be careful out there guys. Remember we are Bird watching in Lion Country.

Check out the chart and take a good laugh. I am not quite at the laughing point yet but will be by tomorrow, you have to be.

Slippage in HD

I was a little emotionally taken aback to be honest so sat out the rest of the session, I have to admit I wasn’t “man enough” to get straight back in and take those nice shorts on EURJPY and EURUSD that presented themselves later on.

Jimmy

ps : Thank you all for my 9,000 Blog Hits in 2010

Jan
05

The Difference between Trading and Gambling

I was at a Traders Event last year, as always the speakers are trying to sell you their trading books or courses in some shape of form disguised as education. Luckily, most people there know the drill so take what they can for free and spend the time talking with other traders over a beer or dinner. Anyway, one of the vendors was selling some automated trading system (Mike Baghdady – Training Traders) that was similar to my manual style of trading and they were giving away 2 weeks trial. What the heck; always need something to tinker with on my other screen……

When I went over to the young lady to get some details I asked her if the Tradestation platform worked on with UK Spread Betting Brokers. Now this was the funny bit…..she said “we don’t bet, we trade. Mike does not gamble”. I was not going to have a debate there and then about methods of trading (which was what I was asking) as opposed to the bigger philosophical question. That said, the point she made was – if you bet you lose (bad) and if you trade you win (good). Oh poor sweet naive little girl from Cork.

On a side note, and my opinion of course, the difference between Gambling and Trading is simply risk management.  Both traders and gamblers assess their risk before entering a trade/bet and decide their wager – no difference there then. The difference occurs at the point after you place your wager. The gambler at a casino or the track (except poker and a few other games) is wedded to his original plan whatever happens next. The trader though is able to move his risk around the “table”. Hopefully never making his risk bigger, but is able to reduce his risk once the trade goes in his desired direction. He can take some profits off and close the stop even tighter until it is at breakeven and then cannot lose. Let’s face it, if people could cash in their chips as soon as  their horse hits the front the bookies would have a difficult time making money; why they might even charge the punters spreads ! I would say this;

Trading IS a form of successful gambling but gambling IS NOT a form of successful trading.

So to todays wagers, gambles, trades whatever……I went cuckoo at 08:21 after cables flyer and placed a buy order at the break of the 50pip 30min candle. Not my type of trade at all, but after yesterdays huge spike in the morning I thought I’d give it a go……well if “giving it go” doesn’t sound remotely professional or logical or clever; you would be right; 1st abberation in 2011 and since 3rd Nov 2010 (FOMC Day – I remember it well). Bang – down 1% before my first tea break – what gives !! I’ll move my alarm clock to 1st March and get ready for the “how to make an arse  myself excerice re-appears”.

1st mistake of 2011

Fortune did visit me though later in the day. The market was obviously waiting for the ADP Payrolls at 13:15, but the EURUSD was looking sicker than a man with 16 bottles brandy on a fishing boat off Scotland in February, earlier. Price punched thru my key price of 1.3260 twice and each time the pull back got smaller; next time I went for the break at 1.3250 with a  stop at 1.3280, entry timed at 10:20. To cut  a 3 1/2 hour story short I got to both my targets that yielded 2% – saved and up on the week and day. Good gamble !

A friend of mine in Sofia was on the same trade for 3%, now that’s how to bring you down to earth.

Good Gamble / Trade / Bet / Wager

all the best

Jimmy

ps – The automated stuff from Mike Bagdady was all bells and whistles. To use it you need to go on a course – of course……..Thanks but no thanks.

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